The Freighter Forecast Tool provides fleet counts and changes at five-year intervals between zero and twenty years based on Cargo Facts Consulting’s (CFC’s) Freighter Forecast 2018-2037. The Tool contains data only for large narrowbody and widebody jet freighter aircraft in commercial service, excluding Russian/CIS and Chinese manufactured types. The tool calculates the sensitivity of the forecast results to variations of the forecast assumptions from the baseline.
Annual Growth Rate
Annual percentage growth rate of air cargo demand in tonne-km. The forecast’s baseline growth rate is 4.0%.
Annual Productivity Improvement
Improvement in freighter productivity based on factors such as increased aircraft utilization and load factor. The forecast baseline is a 1.0% improvement per year.
Ratio of air cargo carried on freighter aircraft vs. that carried in the bellies of passenger aircraft at the end of the twenty-year forecast. The ratio is 50:50 at the beginning of the forecast. The full shift is applied to Large Widebody aircraft, while half the shift is applied to Medium Widebody aircraft. Narrowbody aircraft are unaffected. The forecast assumes a shift from 50:50 to 47.5:52.5 over the twenty-year forecast time horizon.
- Narrowbody – Freighter aircraft that would be single-aisle in passenger configuration (e.g., 737-300, A320/321, 757-200).
- Medium Widebody – Twin-aisle aircraft with maximum structural payload of less than 75 tonnes (e.g., A330, 767-300)
- Large Widebody – Aircraft with maximum structural payload of at least 75 tonnes (e.g., MD-11, 777, 747).
Regional jets and turboprops are not included in the Forecast Tool.
Number of large jet freighters in the world freighter aircraft fleet in commercial use, excluding Russian/CIS and Chinese-built models.
New production, and passenger-to-freighter converted aircraft added to the world fleet for both replacement and growth.
Freighter aircraft permanently removed from the active commercial fleet.
Change in the number of active freighters in the global fleet over the forecast interval (Gross Additions minus Retirements).